Snarky Behavior


September 16, 2008 · 1 Comment

The importance of VA

The importance of VA

PLEASE forward this post to anyone you know who lives in the DC/VA area.

People get caught up in the horse-race of a campaign, but we tend to forget (until the last few weeks and days) that it is the so-called “swing states” that determine political outcomes.  Our electoral system is arranged as such that Barack Obama could possibly receive the post popular votes in the history of our country, and LOSE the election because of the composition of electoral votes.

If you go to RealClearPolitics, you can see for yourself:  John McCain has a clear lead in electoral votes for states that are considered “out of play.”  Barring some campaign catastrophe, those states and their votes are done and counted for, leaving only the following “toss-up” states up for grabs:

Obama 207, McCain 227, Toss Ups 104  |  No Toss Ups: Obama 273, McCain 265
Solid Obama     Leaning Obama     Solid McCain     Leaning McCain     Toss Up
State Obama (D) McCain (R) RCP Average RCP Status 2004 2000
Colorado (9) 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6 Toss Up Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4
Ohio (20) 45.1 47.3 McCain +2.2 Toss Up Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5
Michigan (17) 47.2 45.2 Obama +2.0 Toss Up Kerry +3.4 Gore +5.2
Pennsylvania (21) 47.3 45.7 Obama +1.6 Toss Up Kerry +2.5 Gore +4.2
Virginia (13) 48.0 48.0 Tie Toss Up Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1
Nevada (5) 44.6 45.6 McCain +1.0 Toss Up Bush +2.6 Bush +3.5
New Mexico (5) 47.0 44.7 Obama +2.3 Toss Up Bush +0.7 Gore +0.1
New Hampshire (4) 48.0 44.7 Obama +3.3 Toss Up Kerry +1.3 Bush +1.3
Minnesota (10) 49.0 44.3 Obama +4.7 Toss Up Kerry +3.5 Gore +2.4

Now, if you distribute the votes based on the current margins (which is unwise… that’s why they’re “toss-ups,” after all), you get the map above:  Obama -259, McCain -266… and 13 votes remaining.

If you’re bad at math, I’ll save you the suspense… they’d put Obama over the top.  Without them, he loses.

And where do those 13 votes come from?  Well, from the state of lovers, of course!  Virginia!

Currently Virginia is a dead-heat.  That means EVERY SINGLE VOTE IS IN PLAY.

IF YOU CARE ABOUT THE NEXT FOUR YEARS, IT IS YOUR CIVIC DUTY TO GET OUT THE VOTE.  You may have never canvassed before, but now is a great time to start.  It’s much less painless, and far more rewarding, than you might assume.  And research shows that door-to-door canvassing is by far the gold standard in Get Out the Vote efforts.

There are 50 days left in this election.  PLEASE make time in the next few weekends to go door to door in Virginia.  Sign-up to canvass here.

Categories: Opinion
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1 response so far ↓

  • Xdm // September 16, 2008 at 2:21 pm | Reply

    I just had two Obama girls at my door last night. Not asking for money, just wanting to know if I had any questions. I did, I asked them if they had been to my Mom’s house. She being the one who threatened them with a spatula. They had not. It was a relief.

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